Robusta coffee futures rallied strongly in August 2025, with prices jumping from USD 3,300 per ton on August 1st to around USD 5,000 per ton by August 31st. This marks an extraordinary +51.5% increase in just one month, signaling one of the sharpest rallies in recent years. The last time Robusta Coffee prices touched similar highs was during the peak rally when the London Coffee Terminal reached USD 5,800 per ton.
Global Context: Indonesia vs. Leading Coffee Origins
While Indonesia is experiencing a pronounced Robusta price rally, this movement is part of a broader global trend.
- Vietnam: The world’s largest Robusta producer has seen stable domestic prices as of August 25, suggesting steady output despite global pressure.
- Brazil: Conilon (a Robusta-like variety) and Arabica prices rose +13% and +4% in August compared to July, driven by low inventories, weaker exports, and frost risk in regions like Cerrado Mineiro.
This alignment across Indonesia, Vietnam, and Brazil underscores a synchronized tightening in global Robusta supply, magnifying the rally’s impact.
Impact on Indonesian Robusta Exports
Indonesia, the world’s fourth-largest coffee producer, typically sets its export basis price at +USD 100 per ton above the London Coffee Terminal for Grade 4 Robusta with 80 defects.
- With the current benchmark at USD 5,000, the Indonesian Robusta basis price is now around USD 5,100 per ton.
- If prices rise again to USD 5,800, Indonesian Robusta would be valued at nearly USD 5,900 per ton, levels not seen in years.
Local Indonesian Market Update
The rally in global futures has already translated into higher local prices. In Indonesia, Robusta Asalan (unsorted green coffee) is trading at Rp 66,000–67,000 per kilogram.
Lampung, the country’s largest Robusta-producing region, is nearing the end of its harvest season (July–September). With fresh supplies slowing down, local stock levels are tightening. At the same time, global demand remains high, creating the potential for further price increases in Indonesian Robusta during the coming months.
Currency & Trade Factors: The Rupiah’s Role in Export Economics
The weakening Rupiah has amplified the rally’s effect for Indonesian exporters.
- In August, the USD–IDR exchange rate ranged between IDR 16,116 (Aug 13 low) and IDR 16,416 (Aug 29 high), averaging around IDR 16,293 per USD.
- A weaker Rupiah means exporters earn more in local terms when global benchmarks rise (e.g., USD 5,000/ton → higher Rupiah income).
- However, political unrest and currency volatility have forced Bank Indonesia to intervene in FX markets, creating uncertainty for trade contracts.
Historical Perspective: How 2025 Compares to Past Surges
The +51.5% climb in August 2025 stands out as one of the steepest one-month rallies in coffee history.
- Futures prices reached nearly USD 5,000/ton, approaching the previous peak of ~USD 5,800/ton.
- Earlier in 2025, retailers across the U.S. and Europe already faced a coffee supply crisis, with many struggling to secure beans at affordable levels.
- Analysts warn that unless Brazil and Vietnam deliver strong harvests by year-end, prices may remain elevated. Conversely, if supply rebounds, Arabica could fall by up to 30%, potentially easing pressure on Robusta.
Market Outlook
The combination of:
- International price surges,
- Tightening domestic supply, and
- Sustained global demand
suggests that Robusta prices may remain elevated in the near term. Exporters and local traders alike will need to closely monitor harvest completion in Indonesia and Vietnam, as well as weather conditions that could further tighten supply.
For now, Indonesian Robusta is entering a bullish phase, supported by both international benchmarks and local fundamentals.